Building Leadership for Health
   Building Leadership for Health        

The Future of Health and Care

Over a number of years I have produced a variety of papers and presentations of scenarios of the future of health and care. These include work published by the Nuffield Trust and WHO Regional Office for Europe looking at possible futures as well as thoughts on the future of public health and work for a long term strategy for New South Wales Health, intended to help engage communities in thinking about how they can prepare for their future health and care needs.   I have also developed some tools for looking forward, always remembering that scenarios are not projections of an inevitable future but are considerations of what might happen and what can be done now to create the best possible future. The original scenarios for the future of health in Europe were published by WHO Euro.  

Thinking about Health Futures
A warm up session and some tools and techniques for thinking about the future of health.
Thinking about the future.pdf
Adobe Acrobat document [2.6 MB]
Examples of Health Futures Planning
Training notes and examples from health futures planning exercises that I led in UK, for WHO Europe and for New South Wales Australia updated for 2020.
Health Futures.pdf
Adobe Acrobat document [2.0 MB]
Views of the Future of Public Health
The results of consultations on possible future directions for Public Health in England prepared in 2005 - many of the ideas put forward have now been applied in practice
Adobe Acrobat document [798.3 KB]
Future Health and Care for Older People
This is a lecture I first gave some years ago for Architects for Health but the problems of health and care for older people and issues around the future of health and care services have now come to a head as I predicted. I have updated this to reflect current policy choices.
Architects for Health5 (3).pdf
Adobe Acrobat document [460.8 KB]
Health Scenarios and Costs 2003-2023
Paper prepared for the Wanless Review published by the Nuffield Trust in 2002
Health Scenarios and Costs.docx
Microsoft Word document [46.6 KB]
Future Health and Care Costs
Paper with Professor Ray Robinson on the future cost of health and care in England as an input to the Wanless review.
Microsoft Word document [62.9 KB]
Cost to Society of Preventable Illness
This is a review produced with the Health Economics Group of the University of East Anglia and the National Consumer Council showing the full cost to society of alcohol misuse, smoking, obesity, and preventable CVD and mental illness.
The Societal Costs of Potentially Preven[...]
Microsoft Word document [936.5 KB]
Using Programme Budgeting to Support Future Health Planning in Wales
This is a brief report on how programme budgeting could be used in Wales, it uses Diabetes as an example to show how decisions on the development of and investment in National Service Frameworks could be guided by measures of Cost Utility and Social Return on Investment derived from programme budgets.
Health Programme Budgeting18-5.doc
Microsoft Word document [405.0 KB]
Scenes from the Future of Health and Care in NSW Australia
A script acted by a group of actors to illustrate some aspects of possible health futures - intended to open discussions and engage the audience.
Scenes from NSW Health and Care[...]
Microsoft Word document [48.5 KB]
Scenarios for Health in Europe
A paper to support the working group considering the future roles and functions of WHO EURO it sets out possible futures for global health with and without WHO EURO.
Future Scenarios WHO Euro.docx
Microsoft Word document [49.0 KB]
What is the "best" healthcare system
Analysis in 2001 of systems that were thought of as the best healthcare systems in high income countries.
Best health1.pdf
Adobe Acrobat document [189.2 KB]

My daughter Dr Jess Lister helped me work on ideas about the future of health and care in Europe and I like to think of her in this context. Sadly she died of a brain tumour in 2001, but I carry her memory into the future.


Recent Publications
Text book "Global Health Diplomacy", available here.

Paper in SMQ on Value for Money in Behaviour Change available here.


Gateway Portsmouth

Led by Portsmouth City Council and funded by the European Integration Fund has  issued a series of reports setting out lessons for co production and social integration. Read more here. We ran a dissemination day for  representatives of integration projects from 6 EU Countries.


Global Health Diplomacy

I  worked with  colleagues to develop training material for an open access online course, which provides an introduction to the topic suitable for diplomats in training, health advocates or international officials, academics and others including students of global health. See   


We ran a course for IFMSA on global health advocacy in 2019 before the WHA see here.


In 2020 I developed further courses on global health advocacy and diplomacy for Students for Global Health, the Cambridge MPhil in Public Health and IFMSA see here.


Evaluating Health Wellbeing and Behaviour Change SROI

I updated the tools and notes to reflect the  evidence in 2016. I provide a discovery learning course on health and wellbeing evaluation for LA and CCG commissioning teams and health professionals see here




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© Graham Lister